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Prediction for CME (2021-12-24T17:09:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-12-24T17:09Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/18651/-1
CME Note: Faintly visible as a partial halo SSW in STEREO A COR2 and as a partial halo SSE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. May possibly be associated with a filament eruption visible in SDO AIA 304 beginning around 2021-12-24T10:30Z, with rising field lines faintly visible in SDO AIA 171 around the same time, and coronal change across the data gap in STEREO A EUVI 195 between 2021-12-23T21:15Z and 2021-12-24T10:55Z. | Arrival analysis details from Lan Jian: "Because the mag field rotations and enhanced magnetic field lasted a long time, from late Dec 27 to about Dec 28 16:00, I think there is a CME encounter starting with a shock at 8:35 on Dec 27. The aforementioned field rotation region corresponds to the magnetic obstacle. The CME is overlapping with a stream interaction region (consistent with the ENLIL solar wind run at https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction). I would consider this as a CME+SIR hybrid/merged structure."
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-12-27T08:35Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-12-28T07:06Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/18653/1
Model Inputs:
2021-12-24T17:09:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-14.0, Lat.=-36.0, Speed=443.0, HalfAngle=38.0, Time21.5=2021-12-25T01:34Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2021-12-28T07:06Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =22.6 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.7
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=5

Other Location(s) Impact:
Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-12-28T10:12Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-12-28T14:30Z
STEREO B with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-12-28T14:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211225_013400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211225_013400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211225_013400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211225_013400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211225_013400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211225_013400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211225_013400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211225_013400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211225_013400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211225_013400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211225_013400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211225_013400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211225_013400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211225_013400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211225_013400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211225_013400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 34.72 hour(s)
Difference: -22.52 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Robert Loper (M2M Office) on 2021-12-25T21:52Z

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